Former President Donald Trump has reignited controversy with a sweeping threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, declaring on Truth Social that the measure would counter an “invasion” of migrants and fentanyl into the United States.
The statement, delivered Monday, frames the tariffs as a non-negotiable demand unless the neighboring countries halt what Trump calls “crime and drugs at levels never seen before.”
“Thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada,” Trump wrote.
“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States… until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”
The announcement, seen by many analysts as a political maneuver, has drawn sharp criticism from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who countered with a pointed response highlighting Mexico’s extensive efforts to curb migration and tackle drug trafficking.
Her remarks also underscored the broader implications of such unilateral threats on U.S.-Mexico relations and regional stability.
Mexico’s Rebuttal:
Efforts to Curb Migration and Combat Trafficking
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum swiftly responded to Trump’s threat, rejecting the notion that Mexico has neglected its responsibilities.
She highlighted her country’s ongoing efforts to manage migration and combat the drug trade, stating, “You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States.”
Citing data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Sheinbaum noted that border encounters had decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.
Her statement also spotlighted joint challenges between the two nations, including the role of American firearms in fueling gang violence in Mexico.
“Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours,” she said, urging cross-border cooperation over confrontation.
Sheinbaum’s assertion that Mexico’s efforts have been instrumental in reducing migration aligns with reports from human rights groups and migration experts.
Adam Isacson, a migration specialist with the Washington Office on Latin America, emphasized that Mexican authorities have apprehended tens of thousands of migrants monthly, sometimes exceeding 100,000.
U.S.-Mexican cooperation under President Joe Biden has also included measures like the CBP One app, which enables migrants to apply for lawful entry in an orderly manner.
The Reality Behind Trump’s Claims
Despite Trump’s depiction of a border crisis spiraling out of control, official data paints a starkly different picture.
Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border have reached some of their lowest levels in years, with November 2024 numbers falling below those recorded during parts of Trump’s presidency.
Analysts attribute this decline to Mexico’s enforcement measures and Biden’s diplomatic approach.
Reports from The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal document Mexico’s use of strategic operations, dubbed “El Carrousel,” to redirect migrants heading for the U.S. border back south.
These efforts reflect significant collaboration between the Biden administration and Mexican authorities, achieved without threats of tariffs or public bluster.
“If Trump wants Mexico to crack down on unauthorized migration through its territory, then Biden has already gotten Mexico to do that to a greater extent than anyone has ever done before,” Isacson said, underscoring the effectiveness of diplomacy over Trump’s aggressive rhetoric.
Economic and Political Fallout
The proposed tariffs could have far-reaching economic consequences, potentially disrupting trade between the U.S. and its neighbors.
Mexico and Canada are among the United States’ largest trading partners, and tariffs of this magnitude could lead to price increases across various industries, from automotive to agriculture.
Moreover, Trump’s ultimatum has revived concerns about his tendency to disregard established diplomatic norms in favor of aggressive unilateralism.
Critics argue that such tactics erode trust between nations and undermine opportunities for cooperative problem-solving on complex issues like migration and drug trafficking.
While Trump’s announcement serves as a rallying cry for his base, analysts warn of the broader implications.
“This move isn’t just about migration or drugs—it’s about laying the groundwork for a narrative,” said a political commentator.
“Trump wants to take credit for any future reduction in border crossings, regardless of the groundwork already laid by Mexico and the Biden administration.”
