In an extraordinary display of legislative brilliance, Russia’s lower house of parliament unanimously voted on November 12 to ban what it calls “child-free propaganda.”
The move, hailed as a stroke of genius by the same government that brought you endless vodka toasts to “traditional values,” is the Kremlin’s latest attempt to counteract the country’s alarming demographic decline.
From a faltering population to cultural crusades
Russia’s population predicament is no secret.
Official data released in September reveals that the country’s birth rate has hit rock bottom, with only 599,600 children born in the first half of 2024—the lowest since 1999. That’s 16,000 fewer than in 2023.
Meanwhile, mortality rates are soaring, and emigration has spiked, as many young Russians seem to prefer the charm of foreign lands over the motherland’s unparalleled hospitality of conscription notices and skyrocketing mortgage rates.
The Kremlin, which once prided itself on expanding the Russian Empire by 50 square miles a day, now finds itself staring at a shrinking population.
The birth rate sits at a dismal 1.4 children per woman, comparable to Japan and Italy but without their perks of sushi or world-class cappuccinos. As Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov lamented, the figures are “catastrophic for the future of the nation.”
Because nothing screams a bright future like banning conversations about not having children.
President Vladimir Putin, in his infinite wisdom, has declared that Russian women should aim for at least three children each – a goal apparently best achieved by banning any dissenting viewpoints.
For those who fail to be sufficiently enthused, the Kremlin has offered a dazzling array of incentives, such as tax breaks and expanded childcare, while conveniently ignoring the crumbling economy and a housing crisis that makes starting a family feel about as achievable as colonizing Mars.
Fines, fears, and fiction
The newly passed law, which is expected to sail through the upper house of parliament and land on Putin’s desk for swift approval, imposes hefty fines on individuals and organizations found guilty of promoting a “child-free” lifestyle.
Individuals face fines of up to 400,000 rubles ($4,100), officials double that, and organizations up to a whopping 5 million rubles ($51,000).
Because if there’s one thing that guarantees more babies, it’s punitive fines and the fear of saying the wrong thing.
Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of the lower house and a close Putin ally, justified the ban with a stirring defense of Russia’s moral fabric:
“We are talking about protecting citizens, primarily the younger generation, from information disseminated in the media space that has a negative impact on the formation of people’s personality.”
Surely, the younger generation will thank Volodin for ensuring they grow up surrounded by traditional family values and absolutely no avenues for critical thinking or personal choice.
“It’s the economy, stupid”
Not everyone is convinced by the government’s moral crusade.
Many Russians argue that the root of the country’s demographic woes lies in its economic conditions, not its cultural climate.
“People want children, but there’s no money,” said Alina Rzhanova, a 33-year-old from Yaroslavl who recently became a mother.
“That’s why people are not having children – not because someone somewhere wrote something.”
Yana, a 40-year-old from Moscow who has opted out of parenthood, was even more scathing.
“People have children when they are confident in tomorrow,” she said.
“But when mortgage rates reach 20% a year, I don’t think it’s a good time to have unlimited children.”
Yana added that banning “child-free propaganda” won’t magically make Russians feel financially secure.
“A child-free community is just people discussing their choices. Are we not allowed to discuss things anymore?”
Spoiler alert: No, Yana, you are not.
A demographic time bomb
Russia’s demographic crisis is far more complex than the Kremlin’s cultural battle cry would suggest. Decades of declining fertility rates, compounded by high mortality and emigration, have left the country with an aging population and a shrinking labor force.
According to the CIA’s World Factbook, Russia’s 2023 birth rate was among the 40 lowest globally, behind countries like China and the United States.
The war in Ukraine has only exacerbated these challenges.
In addition to direct military casualties, the conflict has driven millions of Russians, particularly young men, to flee the country. This exodus is a stark contrast to the Kremlin’s optimistic vision of repopulating the motherland with patriotic citizens who will singlehandedly reverse the birth rate by sheer willpower and state-mandated optimism.
The Kremlin’s demographic woes are not new. Putin has long lamented what he sees as Russia’s missed opportunity for demographic greatness.
Speaking to schoolchildren in 2021, he speculated that if not for 20th-century geopolitical shocks, Russia’s population could have reached 500 million – a number he treats as both a lost dream and a personal vendetta.
In his mind, reversing population decline is not just a policy goal; it’s a heroic quest against what he perceives as a decadent, childless West.
Cultural wars and geopolitical anxieties
Critics argue that Putin’s obsession with demographics has shaped his foreign policy, including the invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts suggest the war is driven in part by a desperate attempt to annex neighboring territories and populations to offset Russia’s decline.
“The most successful population program that the Kremlin has had has been annexing neighboring territories, not increasing the birthrate,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, an American demographer.
Crimea’s 2014 annexation added 2.4 million people to Russia’s population – a strategy that, while efficient, tends to draw international sanctions and widespread condemnation.
The war has also featured the abduction of Ukrainian children, which Putin frames as a noble act of saving them from a decadent West. Human rights groups, however, see it differently, calling it a blatant violation of international law.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin continues to paint Western liberalism as the root of all evil, claiming that feminism and LGBTQ-friendly policies are part of a grand conspiracy to make Russia “childless.”
A future hanging in the balance
“Unless Russia’s leaders can develop and finance a more effective set of policies, the only solutions to population decline will be a combination of incorporating non-Russian territory and/or immigration,” said Harley Balzer, an expert in Eastern European affairs.
But for now, the Kremlin appears determined to double down on cultural wars, as though slogans and censorship can miraculously erase economic stagnation, war-induced trauma, and decades of systemic decline.
