The floating ice edge at Thwaites Glacier margin in 2019. Photo: CNN
Antarctica (November 12, 2024) — The Thwaites Glacier, an ice mass in Antarctica that scientists dub the “Doomsday Glacier,” could raise global sea levels significantly if it collapses, spurring debate over the need for intervention to prevent further damage.
Two major studies published this year have reignited concerns around the glacier’s future as researchers predict that Thwaites’ ongoing retreat could drive sea levels up by over two feet, and potentially more if its failure triggers a broader collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).
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A Glacier on the Brink
Thwaites Glacier is a vast river of ice, estimated to be the size of Great Britain and the widest glacier globally at 80 miles across.
Located in the Amundsen Sea Basin, Thwaites already contributes around 4 percent of the annual rise in global sea levels due to its steady loss of ice, according to scientists from Oregon State University and Columbia University’s GlacierHub.
Since 2000, Thwaites has lost more than 1,000 billion tons of ice, a process that has accelerated over the last 30 years.
Its rate of flow, and thus ice discharge into the ocean, has doubled since the 1990s, largely due to warming ocean currents and structural shifts within the glacier.
“There’s a growing sense of urgency around Thwaites,” said John Moore, a professor at the University of Lapland’s Arctic Center.
Moore, who advocates for studying large-scale geoengineering projects to preserve Thwaites, argues that with the glacier’s instability increasingly clear, intervention may be necessary.
“It will take 15 to 30 years for us to understand enough to recommend or rule out any interventions,” he told GlacierHub, stressing the importance of exploring potential solutions while more information on Thwaites’ future impact emerges.
Threat of Complete Collapse
The urgency surrounding Thwaites lies in the potential for catastrophic sea level rise.
According to The Conversation, Thwaites contains enough ice to increase global sea levels by approximately 65 centimeters (around two feet) if it collapses fully.
If the collapse triggers instability in the neighboring WAIS, sea levels could rise by more than ten feet, threatening coastal cities worldwide, from New York to Shanghai, and endangering low-lying island nations like Kiribati and the Maldives.
The glacier is already susceptible to what scientists call “Marine Ice Cliff Instability” (MICI).
This phenomenon, associated with West Antarctica’s steep seabed slope, can result in taller and more unstable ice cliffs that collapse into the ocean, increasing the risk of a chain reaction in the surrounding glaciers.
Researchers warn that if Thwaites’ ice shelf, a floating barrier slowing its flow, destabilizes further, MICI could exacerbate the retreat of Thwaites and other glaciers, allowing for rapid, uncontrollable ice discharge into the ocean.
This scenario, however, remains subject to ongoing debate, with some researchers noting that the retreat of Thwaites may not result in a wholesale collapse of the WAIS.
Scientists from Columbia University note that chunks of sea ice and glacial remnants from the disintegrating Thwaites ice shelf may continue to stabilize the glacier in a manner similar to the intact ice shelf, potentially containing the glacier’s impacts on sea levels.
Geoengineering Solutions: An Extreme but Necessary Measure?
The scale of Thwaites’ potential impact has spurred discussions around innovative interventions, including geoengineering proposals designed to protect the glacier from the encroaching warm water.
One such proposal, according to climate economist Gernot Wagner of Columbia Climate School, includes the possibility of erecting massive curtains—up to 62 miles long—to prevent warm seawater from reaching the glacier’s underbelly, thus slowing its melt.
Critics argue that geoengineering projects divert attention from reducing carbon emissions, which remain the most effective way to combat climate change.
Wagner emphasized this point, warning that geoengineering cannot be seen as a replacement for emissions reductions.
“It’s not a solution to climate change — at best, it’s a painkiller,” Wagner stated, adding that geoengineering should only be pursued alongside efforts to curb fossil fuel use.
Despite the debates, researchers agree on the need to address the glacier’s retreat, with Moore insisting that glacial geoengineering may be one of the few tools available to mitigate certain polar tipping points, such as Arctic sea ice melt and WAIS instability.
Scientific Studies Reveal Worsening Conditions
New research confirms that high tides are lifting the Thwaites Glacier by several centimeters, leaving its underside exposed to warm water that promotes melting.
A May study from The Conversation observed that seawater intrusion beneath the glacier brings in saltwater, lowering the melting point and creating what researchers term “vigorous melting” of the glacier’s base.
This interaction is intensifying the glacier’s melt and accelerating the destabilization of Thwaites’ ice shelf.
Further studies, including research by Oregon State’s Erin Pettit, have revealed the structural weakening of Thwaites’ ice shelf, which is riddled with cracks and fractures.
Pettit reported that the eastern section of the ice shelf is showing advanced deterioration and could collapse within ten years.
If this ice shelf disintegrates, researchers anticipate that Thwaites will no longer have a physical restraint holding back its flow, setting the stage for the glacier to potentially pour into the sea over the following decades or centuries.
The Uncertain Future of West Antarctica’s Glaciers
While scientists are split on whether Thwaites will collapse this century or further in the future, there is consensus that the glacier’s accelerated retreat is irreversible.
Ocean-driven melting has already reduced the structural stability of West Antarctic glaciers, particularly Thwaites and neighboring Pine Island Glacier.
As warmer ocean waters continue to undercut these glaciers, thinning the ice shelves that act as brakes on the glaciers, the point of irreversible loss seems nearer.
Meanwhile, researchers acknowledge that questions remain around how MICI will affect WAIS and whether rapid retreat will trigger a chain reaction.
While some studies speculate that the collapse of Thwaites will destabilize the entire region, others suggest that additional factors, such as floating sea ice and glacial debris, could help regulate the glacier’s flow.
The exact timeline of Thwaites’ disintegration remains uncertain.
A more conservative projection published in August suggests the glacier may survive past 2100, though other studies anticipate a near-total loss within this century.
Scientists argue that international cooperation and technological advancement are essential to protect against rising sea levels.
Given that the glacier already contributes meaningfully to sea level rise, the consequences of inaction are likely to impact coastal communities and ecosystems worldwide.
While geoengineering may provide temporary solutions, climate experts emphasize that only immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will offer a lasting solution to the climate crisis.
